Back in a Tic

2011-11-24T02:53:00.000-08:00

Well hello peeps. Long time no see.
I guess last time was a false dawn, but here we go again.
So whats been going on. Erm.. Poker mostly.

Took a break from trading and sports to see how far we could get with that. I did at least get out to Vegas this year, made a few quid but not enough that the missus couldnt blow on an hours shopping.

Right, what we gonna do then. Ill just post some views on sports, betting and stuff and we'll see how it goes. Ill be doing a little trading and keeping an eye on the geegees. Goal is to find a nice Cheltenham winner or something like that.

I have to tell you about a completly loopy friend of mine.

We'll call him 'Foley', not his real name.

Foley is an absolute degenarate gambler the likes you dont see very often.

If you gave him 20 quid and asked him for two tenners, he'd run to to the bookies and blow it on the 3.30 instead! Anyways if theres one thing he does know, its his American football.

But he's a hopeless punter so ive been trying to help him find a few way to profit.Tonight is Thanksgiving in the US and they have a few games on. Green Bay are a bit skinny to back outright but should win easy enough so we're going for the ht/ft result.

Omg they killed my blog !

2009-03-09T11:45:00.001-07:00

Crikey where have I been !!
Is it really a year since Denmania?
Ive been so busy this last 12 months with one thing or another, but here I am again.
Anyways, if anyones still out there let me know and i'll give this another crack.

Night before Cheltenham again, isnt it great.
No strong fancies this year, but think it might pay to oppose a few.
25 of the most competitive races of the season, what dya reckon 4, 5, winning favourites?

Warmed up today by banking £67.09 from just the last seven races.
Got some new pc screens and hardware that might help.
Buggered if I can find the On button though !

Footy crazy

2008-03-30T15:45:00.000-07:00

On Friday I was out helping friend who does some volunteer work at a local historic site. Got back in the afternoon and there wasn't much racing left. Still, I fired up the Racing Trader to see what I could do.
In an almost perfect 50 minutes I increased the bank by £102.72.
Not bad considering Thursday I spent nearly all afternoon to get the same! More family stuff meant that Friday night and Saturday was a washout so never got to play.
Friend of mine bugged me for a tip on Saturday morning.
Told him 'Just back Portsmouth'
He owes me a beer for that so I guess I earned something.

Today, Sunday, there was too much to do at home so the racing was a non starter. Put some bets on the 3 football matches at various stages of play. Backed Chelsea pre match and traded out after 10 minutes for a £38.24 profit. Did the same with Liverpool but waited till 60 minutes and made £98.28.
Backed Spurs just before half time when they were 1-0 up, then of all the daftest things you could think of happen, Newcastle go and score more goals than they have since Christmas!!
£52.86 loss was almost funny. Luckily I got out at 2-1 otherwise It coulda been nasty. So at least I had a £83.66 winning day.
Enough to take the Misses out for a Chinese tonight.

Have had an invite to go to Aintree next week. As much as I'd like to, Im not entirely sure I can as Id probably have stay over, so I might have to see if appointments can be broken.

Rainy day.

2008-03-27T11:40:00.000-07:00

Ive not had too much to report lately as Ive only played a few days since last post. Nothing spectacular today, but £109 profit in 19 races not to be sniffed at.
Made a few losses that probably could have been avoided by scratching earlier. I'm trying harder to close/green well before off time and not be left trying to turn it round in running. This has probably been the biggest drain on profits. Getting back to the boring mechanical trading will bring in just as much money in the long term.

After a bumper Cheltenham week I made sure I cashed out a fair chunk. Im always cautious of an over exposure like I had last year when I doubled clicked to green out and lost £300 instead !
As the profits build up for the day I transfer them to the Aussie wallet so at least its locked in and I wont get cleaned out if there is a freezout or some computer malfunction. Cant remember where I read that tip, but it was on another blog, so Im not claiming it as my own! Thanks to whoever posted it.

Denmania

2008-03-14T18:40:00.000-07:00

Well that was just awesome.
The power and class of Denman was just a joy to watch. I stood opened mouthed at the TV as he simply smashed the opposition. Kauto Star just couldn't live with him, Exotic Dancer was nearly a fence behind!
I was happy to put betting aside and just watch.
Its been an amazing (and profitable) week. I was pleased for Harry Findlay. The interviews he gave in his house made for great viewing.

The fact that I made a sizeable sum (that Id rather not disclose) on the other racing seems irrelevant. I offered to take Mrs T out anywhere this weekend, hoping she'd plump for Lingfield as we went to the Winter Derby last year and had a great time.
She chose the Ideal Home Exhibition ! Doh :(

Going to Fulham on Sunday. I really have no idea how that will end up. Getting beat would be the end for Fulham as it surely is all over at 1/5 now. Back on Monday hopefully.

The Greatest days racing ever..... till tomorrow.

2008-03-13T17:57:00.000-07:00

Well that was something special wasnt it?
What a spectacle that was. I think I'll regret not being there forever.
Master Minded, simply awesome, Inglis Drever, emotional. Tell me didnt nearly get close to crying like a girl. Not even Joe Lively getting stuffed, my only ante bet post of the meeting, could take a shine off a fantastic days racing. The trading profits from the race covered what Id bet on him anyway.

I almost didnt notice that todays profit showed £411.61 from 19 races. A mix of trading and a few lays made the money today.
I couldnt see The Listener winning a race where he wouldn't be allowed to dominate and Dont Push It, a dodgy jumper and also tipped by Jon Mcririck a couple of decent lays made for a bumper days profit. I was prepared to hedge each horse if they looked like winning, but neither did.
Dont Push It fell when well beaten.

Gold Cup day tomorrow. I think I'll just play a few early races then go watch the rest down the pub. Its going to be a cracking race. The hype surrounding it has great for racing imo. I know some are complaining it is overdoing it, but what the heck. I believe Kauto Star is too fast for Denman but I think he is a lovely stamp of an old fashioned chaser. Its got to more fun to have a bet on Denman anyway. But at big prices and not without a chance if something goes wrong Knowhere and Halcon Generaldes could make up an interesting exacta combi.

However you do tomorrow make sure you enjoy it.

Gone with the wind.

2008-03-12T17:14:00.000-07:00

It was a shame that Cheltenham was abandoned today but especially so if you planned to go. I was there last January when it got called off late due to frost, so know how it feels.
As it happened there was a meeting at Chepstow scheduled and about 3000 punters crammed on to the local trains to go to Wales for the day. I think they were only expecting a few hundred people as the 2 old duffers on the turnstiles almost had coronaries trying to get everyone in before the first. I remember backing 3 winners and coming back with a pocket full of cash so not all bad then.
I guess it was pretty much the same at Southwell and Huntingdon as RUK said they sent out for beer 3 times!
There was plenty of money in play as punters were still determined to have their bets on, so it didn't matter that instead of the Grade 1 Queen Mother Champion Chase it was replaced with the Grade 4 Cadale Lady Riders Handicap hurdle.

Due the meetings being spaced out for TV there was plenty of time between races and with Wolves on in the evening there was a much calmer pace to the day instead of the 'race every 10 minutes' that normally occurs and Im sure this allowed me to post a bumper £313.75 profit. I was a bit more aggressive in trading today and let 2 bets ride which both won.
Alan Kings Blistering in the bumper was heavily backed. I saw a £10k bet matched on Betfair, with jock of the moment Choc Thornton driving it out after the most farcical start to a race you'll ever see, where they crawled so slow for the first 4 furlongs they almost stopped. I won about £80.
At Wolves I played the first two races for profit and had £80 bet on Kames Park at 2.2. He was so far ahead in every rating system you can find after a recent close up in a fair Lingfield race that this drop to claiming company should have seen him go off much shorter. Sometimes its too obvious, and Im sure punters think too much into it. He traveled strongly from the turn and although he only won by a short head he was given a great ride by Tom Eaves to assert close home. That was enough for me to call it a day.
Tomorrow sees a colossal card of 10 top races from Cheltenham with a 12.30 start and Joe Lively runs in the 3rd, my one big fancy for the meeting. So Id better get going.

Off and running.

2008-03-12T06:01:00.000-07:00

Made a modest £56.56 from Tuesday's sport.
I checked the returns to see where I made it.
£9.35 came from the Liverpool game.
Cheltenham +£34.41, Sedgefield +£29.05, Southwell -£22.95 and a naughty £7.45 from a few U.S races that I really shouldn't have touched, but got away with anyway.

I made 2 bad mistakes at Southwell. Firstly I made a bet drifted so bad I had to race to lay it off for a £25 loss, then in the 2nd last I laid the favourite at about 1.99 and was too slow to back it. The race went off and shot into the lead. I got some on 1.44 but I guess I got away lightly with a £27.51 red.
I think I was distracted too much by flicking through the TV.

Twas the night before Christmas...

2008-03-10T13:40:00.000-07:00

I cant make it to Cheltenham this year so if your going then im extremely jealous. If you cant get excited by this week then you must be made of bad blood. And if youve got a few lumpy ante post vouchers that just tops it off.
I dont have any strong fancies this year unlike last when Sublimity and Cork Allstar paid for the week. So apart from Joe Lively, who's price hasnt moved much since I backed him, I might just have a few speculative bets and trade the AW at Southwell !

Im close to getting back in the swing of things and made a few quid last week, but lost too much due to being ring rusty. Made too many mistakes on the trading ladder, but Ive got back on track now. Made £49.08 on this afternoons racing. Noticed the last few favourites were getting heavily backed, probably punters looking for ammo for this week. Made most of the profit on the last 3 races.

Its going to be a great weeks sport, wish you all the best of luck and good punting.

February Update

2008-02-26T09:26:00.000-08:00

I know I still get a few looking here from the stat results so just a quick few bits to say whats up.

First up, this month is dragging on badly.
As I said below, the in laws are here, STILL !!

So having to spend the month being a glorified B&B owner is somewhat detrimental to betting front. Its not been easy to get any real live trading action in, and apart from a few minor footie bets thats been about it. I did back the the draw in the Carling Cup on Sunday in Hills, though just to win a little under 50 quid. Then promptly blew it all on Sunday lunch and one too many beers.
Well, at least I didnt waste it.

One of the horses I noted recently (see 19th Dec) Seven is My Number got up at at a tasty price at Taunton last week.
13/2 from 8/1.
Of course, I only get to see this in the results!

Having an enforced absence has made it possible to look at things in a different way though.
Big disappointment last week was obviously Joe Lively. You could make excuses for track and going, but he never looked even a shade of his former self. It might be he needs to be race fit and tanking round Cheltenham to show his best. Now he's drifted back to 16/1 Ive laid the bets off I had on him previously for the Sun Alliance, so can now wait till the race to see if I still fancy him.
Ive managed to wangle a day at Folkestone tomorrow, (Weds 27th) for the 'Kent National'.
Looks an ordinary card but a welcome escape.
Just 1 more week to go an then maybe we can get back to business!

Im still kicking

2008-01-14T08:20:00.000-08:00

Just for anyone who hhas been reading, thanks, but as you saw I was awol last week.
Ive got the in laws coming to stay next month (eesh) and am gonna have to do a whole lot of diy to get the house up to scratch.
Will have to give the account a rest for a week or 2 till its done.

Still looking for a stonking good punt for Cheltenham.
Had it away on Sublimity last year! Drop me a line if youve any ideas.

Will hopefully still get a chance to bet the odd noted horse and will keep an eye on the footy.
Im off to Fulham on Saturday to them get stuffed by Arsenal. Could think of better things to do with 45 quid!

In the mean time check out my fellow bloggers from the list, especially footygeek, Mark Iverson and the Gambler.

Little fish are sweet

2008-01-07T09:23:00.000-08:00

Didn't do anything Sunday so nothing posted.

Did a bit of analysis into last weeks results. The 2 days losses were really bad in that they all but wiped out the weeks profit. £28.48 is better than a loss but I'm gonna take a few measures to get back on track. Firstly I'm dropping the working bank to £100. It might be just be a funny time of year or maybe its me out of form, but if this is going to work Ill have to keep reassessing things.

Had to run a few errands for Mrs T, so only traded last 7 races.
I also wanted to be a lot tighter in waiting for price movements and ended up scratching a much higher percentage of bets than I was last week. I know for certain it saved me a few times from 4 tic + losses. 2 races ended dead level, thats to say I bet and layed exactly the same amount.

In the 3'oc I fired in 11 bets of £25 on the favourite Merlins Magic and matched it with £275 on the lay side using the Racing Trader software.
This also happened in the 3.50 where backing Boppys Pride to £310 got matched at the same average odds. I only lost on one race where the price on Tresulier dropped from 3.45 just as I layed it to 3.1 in a blink. thankfully the green hedge button came to my rescue and I lost only £1.03 after £200 of back and lay bets. I made £6.48 (after comm) on Cragganmore Creek prerace after backing to the tune of £600 and laying to £606.81.
A further 3 wins of £2.05 £3.21 and £3.75 returned a profit of £13.46. Not much, but it was little more than hour in front of the ladder.

I actually enjoyed it more as at no time was I facing big red losses.
I'll try not to look at the races too much as I think this is probably destracting me too much.
Glad I stayed away from the football the weekend.
A bloodbath in the bookies I think.

Dont Panic

2008-01-05T20:40:00.000-08:00

Had a pretty duff days punting.
Big fancy Calgary Bay got beat. Thought Ours might come in for some support, instead it drifted like a barge in the wind.
Traded 5 other races. Up in 3 down in 2.
Didn't touch the Football. So -£68.76 today.
I'm going through a wobbly patch I think, so I'll probably have Sunday off and try to find where I'm making mistakes.
Still doing well overall.

Easy money

2008-01-04T08:10:00.000-08:00

I only played 2 races from Wolves last night as I was too busy during the day. Stole a £11.02 profit.
Slap wrist for not posting, but was playing some poker instead.
Now I dont mind losing to a better hand, but 3 times I got beat by quads! Bah silly game.

Back to today, just 2 meetings so it was not too stressful to play 12 of the races. 2 Henderson horses looked good things so I left the profits unhedged. Both won easy so happy days.
Came good in all but one of the other 10 so thats a healthy £80.05 to slap on the Spreadsheet.
Most unlikely to play tonght so I'll wrap it up for today.
Hope you all won plenty today. Have a good weekend.

Boing

2008-01-02T16:01:00.000-08:00

I always thought the 'Bounce factor' theory was a load of baloney.
Why because you've done so well one day does it mean you're going to be so bad the next? Of course this is only to supposed to happen to horses, but I think I caught a dose of it today!
Yes I made a complete mess of it today. I traded 7 races and went red on 5 of them! Twice I had the price run away from me in a blink. I know I could of still got out for about £12 losses on each but the prices even ran away from my hedge bets! Had to to take evasive action and get out as the race started losing £23 and £28 in two hits. Maybe it was just a funny day on the markets. In running players got bashed by two 1.01's getting beat. So maybe I should be grateful. Made £17 on 2 races to slightly offset losses of £14 on three more.
So -£53.23 on the afternoon racing, but never mind there was some football tonight! That would turn my day around surely.

Football

Bolton at home haven't been great, but they were playing Derby.
Layed the draw just after kick off at 3.85 for £25.
Just had wait for a goal. Easy huh?
Half time came and went and it was looking grim, price is in the 2's.
60 minutes and I couldn't take any more. To face a near 100 quid loss would be a right kick in the danglies. Pressed the green button and shut me eyes.

A -£44.38 is not the best way to end to the night, especially as Bolton left it till nearly everyone had gone home to nick the winner!
Now I know at sometime or other I would have to post a bad day but not so soon eh. But what the heck I'm still up on the week!

So -£97.61 today.There looks like there might be a cold snap coming. Wetherby is already off tomorrow. I might take a more cautious approach the next few days. FA Cup games look devilish to suss out just looking ahead slightly.

There is really good thread on the Betfair forum (a rarity!) at the moment about discipline in gambling.
Here's one of the posts that caught my eye.
Especially after today.

Lets put today down as a blip and crack on.

A Happy New Punting Year

2008-01-01T13:19:00.000-08:00

There probably isn't a better time to start a betting project than January 1st. Well, maybe there is but this is where I start mine.

I didn't post any figures last month as I was just testing the water. I wasn't sure how long or whether Id keep this blog going, but Ive been most encouraged by those who've left comments and Ive found it fun to think what I might write that night, good or bad.

Ive cashed out of Betfair to leave £600. I'm starting with a £200 'working' float and £400 in the 'Aussie' pocket as reserve. Ive done this purposely so in case of 'misclicks' or online disasters I wont lose any more than 1/3 of my bank on any one day. I learnt this from another blog but unfortunately cant remember which one, so if its yours, thanks, great tip! Mrs Tony has made me some easy to use Excel sheets to help track results.

As Im mostly scalping pre-race and trading out at 60minutes max on the Football, it will take a bad lapse in judgement to blow it.
Of course the law of sod might well rear its ugly head but hopefully not too often.

Well the official day 1, here goes.
The trouble with New Years day, is that it follows New Years Eve!
After a rowdy night of dreadful Kareoke and drunken revelry I woke up in my mates house this morning, though not the one the party was in, so I got out of the big clean up. Watched the Fulham Chelsea game there and with an early penalty to Fulham I thought it was Xmas again. Sadly as has been the norm this season the game didnt end at half time, and with Ballack falling down like the Berlin wall, the 1-2 scoreline was a bit dissapointing.

Got home to trade 5 races. I didnt like the chances of Afsoun at Cheltenham, so I left it a bit light on the back side. He was 2/1 favourite and he hasnt won for a year. He got outpaced When Blazing Baileys showed the form that won last years Cleeve hurdle and might get closer in the World Hurdle this time, though softer ground might help. The other 4 races I just traded out pre race, all green.
Didnt touch the footie today

Todays Profit £103.78

A good start to the year and keeps the good run going that Ive had recently. Roll on day 2!

The Last Hurrah

2007-12-31T10:17:00.000-08:00

As I reckoned I didn't get much chance to 'get on' the last few days.
Had a few small bets on Saturday. Really fancied Alle Eile e/w. Thought it was a bet to nothing at 9/2. Couldn't see it being out of 1st 2. Didn't need the place in the end as he won pretty convincingly. Been following this one for about 3 years now since I saw him in the parade ring at Cheltenham in a festival Novice race. Has rewarded me plenty since then.

I traded five races today and came good in all of them. So I end the year on a winner which is nice. Got a bit of a party to go to tonight so I might not get too much racing in. Hope Fulham (yes, they're my team, dont laugh) dont get tonked tomorrow.

Best wishes and a prosperous New Year to everyone.

Betting in the old fashioned way

2007-12-26T16:19:00.000-08:00

Well if you've read my previous posts, you know how sweet I am on Joe Lively since his Cheltenham win.
I got the chance to see him for myself at Kempton today. He was up front most of the way and despite being headed and making a blunder 2 out, he was able to get in front and stayed on well for a deserved win.

Backing a winner at any time is nice, but non more so than one you have 'plotted up'. The 11/4 wasn't earth shattering I know, but Ive got 16's for the Sun Alliance!

Kauto Star made light work of the King George field.
Can Denham really be a threat?
If he stays sound, he must surely have a chance of surpassing Best Mate's 3 Gold Cups. Old Vic was a good second, might have to keep an eye on him.

Was fun to get back in a busy ring trying to nick the prices.
A bit more athletic and dare I say, more healthy than mouse clicking!

I might not do too much punting/trading between now and new year,
but Ill post something if I do.

Santa Claus is coming to town

2007-12-22T17:52:00.000-08:00

Got up so late nearly missed all the racing.
Played a few, nothing spectacular or bad.
Thought Ginger McCain was funny trying to put everyone off Cloudy Lane, it certainly drifted. Ran a good race and stayed on well.
Lets see it when you fancy it eh Ginger??
Didn't touch the football as I hadn't really had a look at any prices or anything. Ive had a high strike rate lately when picking just the ones I think stand out. Had a fancy for Nawamees in the first at Wolves and seeing as racing was delayed by fog, I built up a fair no liability profit position on him when it finally went off half hour late. With still a big chance the fog would get worse I decided to let it run. Also the off times could be anything so I was gonna give up after this. He pretty well hosed up. A very easy winner. I shut up shop and think they only managed one more race before abandoning racing. So I was right to end things there.

A few days off now. Some shopping, a little social time and far too much food. I'm going have a think about how to approach the new year. I haven't posted figures as some do, as I'm still new to this blogging lark. A mix of selective footy bets, high volume/small profit race trades and a few horses to follow is the most likely way I think I'll do things.

Ive not too much technical knowledge on sports like tennis and Cricket, but I'll try to learn some of the methods employed by successful traders with a view to the future.
Euro 2008 will be something I'll forward too.

Ive found writing these updates very beneficial. I don't even know if anyone reads them (hello??) but I'm hopeful I can keep it going.
It certainly helps add more focus to the day. Ive reeled myself in more than once already when I could have blown money on bad bets knowing Id be mad at having to write about them.
I'm going to Kempton on Boxing Day. Joe Lively who won so well at Cheltenham should be favourite for the Feltham Novice Chase.
I'll back him for the Sun Alliance beforehand and as he's bound to come in a few points if he wins. I'll be disappointed if he doesn't.

So, that's it then for now. Merry Xmas all.

Light work

2007-12-21T18:40:00.000-08:00

I wasnt certain racing was going ahead today because of the heavy frost etc, so as its been a busy week and I had a good day yesterday, I basically took the day off as I had other things I wanted to do.
Tomorrow is busy and also a full football programme.

A Foxing good day

2007-12-20T15:48:00.000-08:00

After yesterdays dramas I got up early and re-assessed what Im trying to do. I started this blog to help add some purpose and discipline to my day. Knowing I post here means Id hope I'm less inclined to just blow it on some desperate donkey.
"Done me dough, punched the wall" might make for a good headline, but it would probably be my last.

I re-watched the Trader Pro training Videos on the Racing Traders website. Had a good read of all the blogs, Racing Post and some sports pages. The videos made things clearer. I know Ive been letting too many trades run too long in the vain hope the price comes back to me, instead of recognizing where and why money stops going in or out of the market.

Started today in good fashion clearing a profit in the first 4 races then scratching or taking an insignificant loss in 4 of the next 6. Then I hit dream run of 8 chunky greens from 9. There seemed to more than a few gambles going on today and getting on the right end of them put plenty bucks in the bank. Of course greening up means it didn't matter whether they won or lost.

So after yesterday I was a bit more cautious about the Wolves races. Got up and walked away till ten minutes till off time. Went about them same way and got results from 4 and a zero from the last. Missed one when the missus came home. Left the footy alone.

Funniest moment of the night came when racing was held up because a Fox buried a dead hedgehog in the sand and all the officials had to go out and search for it!
A thumping good day by all accounts, things are looking more rosy Of course there always bad days to come but for now I'm pretty chuffed to see the days results.

Though not as much as the Betfair punter who went to green up his bet, got 20 quid matched at 1000/1 and bagged 20 grand when the beast got back up on the line!
Says he will pay off his mortgage and treat the kids.
So the 3.30 at Ascot doesnt appeal then?

Over cooking the eggs

2007-12-19T15:38:00.000-08:00

With 3 meetings today and Kempton under lights, there wasn't any shortage of opportunities. With a race every ten minutes you don't need too much each race for it to build up to a good daily pot. With scalping I try to get a race green before the off at least 7 out of 10. So getting 16 in profit out of 21 wasn't too sad. So another good day in the bag...... until Kempton.

I really wish Id left it alone. With half an hour between races it totally went against the trading style Ive tried hard to develop. That of just taking small tics 10 minutes before the off.
It was too easy to put in an obvious lay or bet with 20 minutes before the off, only to see it fly the other way due to lack liquidity and leaving me with deep whole to climb out of. Not once, but 3 times I tried to be 'clever' only for the market to laugh at my trades. You'd think I get the message by the 2nd! It was practically the whole days profits down the tube in 3 easy motions. Slap. Slamming on the brakes I was able to show positive results for the last 2 but that was only damage limitation of the smallest degree.
Remarkably the Racing P&L results show a + . The price of sandwich at least so if I had to rely on it I wouldn't of gone hungry, but it feels like a loss and maybe I deserved one.
One for the notebook though. Seven Is My Number. Didnt win but crashed into the last having looked a certainty 2 out. Has won 2 NHF races at Ascot, so Id expect theyll go there for a small race first.

Football
At least I found a good bet on the footy to end the day. With Chelsea not having lost at home for a gazillion matches they faced a Liverpool side without Steven Gerrard, who was probably still suffering from that brutal tackle that sent him flying like Superman in the Marseille game last week. They also had their No.2 keeper in goal. Not only that, but most of their fans never made it due to a motorway pile up delaying coaches. At least they could rely on the plastic ones from Surrey. I laid the draw again as I often do. Exit strategy was 60 minutes or 1st goal. With it being 0-0 and not too many chances I was crunching the numbers needed to get out with a minimum loss.
I had it worked out and ready.
I wasn't going to let it compound the racing losses I had tonight.
Was listening on 5 live as the ball was booted up field had the mouse primed and ready to close, but..... SUSPENDED !!

Fat Frank had bundled one in on 59 minutes! Just as the market re-opened Crouch got sent off for having an offensive girlfriend or something, and the market shut off again. It looked all over.
I trickled the money back for an average of 14, having laid at 3.25.
Selective football bets are showing a good profit this month.

So I learnt another good lesson today.
Stop digging holes in quicksand !

Frozen out by a Polar Gale

2007-12-18T15:05:00.000-08:00

Had intended to find a couple of bets and not trade as I had a few things I wanted to do. But the quality was pretty mediocre stuff again so I ended up trading 8 races instead. Won on 7 of them, but made a complete horlicks of scalping Polar Gale in the 1.50 Catterick. Kept thinking it would drift but all my lay bets got overtaken instead as it got backed down to odds on. 'Greening up' before the off turned the card red! Bah. Traded a fair return on the other 7 races for a good days profit so I shouldnt grumble. Best just to move on and know you'll be alright if you keep chipping away.
Only horse to take the eye today was in the NHF race at Catterick where Le Platino won very well and although not beating much, looks a big strong sort that might do better over timber. Im not trying to tip or anything like that just writing more for my own benefit and saying what I see, so if you disagree let me know!

Football

The 2 Carling Cup games looked tricky with Arsenal and Spurs away at Man City and Blackburn. Trouble with this Cup, is you never know who actually wants to win it! I tried 2 small lays of the draw with a view to get out for a small loss if nothing happened after 30 minutes. Luckily, both games had early goals and the price shifted enough for a quick green. Turned the machines off and watched Spooks on the telly. I still havnt a clue as to who is spying on who!

Finally, get well soon to footygeek over at http://footygeek.blogspot.com/
Hopefully he can win a few quid to keep him in tissues and Lemsip.

Who left the door open?

2007-12-17T15:24:00.000-08:00

Had a rather good day scalping the the 2 meetings from Plumpton and Wolves. But it would have been a lot better but for the last race.
Was about to congratulate myself on healthy green with Pelican Green and good days trading, but Id forgotten to cancel the stop loss as he scooted clear!

A mad scramble to do some damage limitation got partially matched, but the green never came back so an unnecessary loss spoilt a near perfect day. Overall it didnt hurt too much but it was annoying more than anything. One of those things you dont read in any book and have to pay in cash to learn.

There were a few reasonable runners at about today, not that youd expect much at Plumpton on a Monday.
Sou'wester won very easy and might be a useful gaff track chaser.
Kruguyrova beat a fair field in the Novice chase though David Pipes Pauiliac was a dissapointing favourite.
Might have to miss a day or 2 this week and the midweek football is not too exciting, so glad I got the week of to a good start.

Not so Super Sunday.

2007-12-16T12:39:00.000-08:00

Those that took the odds on me going shopping can collect.
Had a a complete no play day. Thought about the right bet, if that counts? Did think Man U were a bit big at 3.0 and so it proved, alas the horrors of Tchibo and Woolworths were the only place I spent any cash! Will play some Poker tonight instead.

Pass the Alka Seltzer.

2007-12-15T17:36:00.000-08:00

Unfortunately I woke up like a bear with a sore head.
Not this morning, but about half past 12!
Odds on it was flaming sambuccas that were guilty.
Decided it was best to grab the moby and keep tabs on the Man City draw lay. Took only 7 minutes for City to bang one in. Got out at 5.0 having laid 3.55. Ship it!
Wish they were all that simple. Turned out to be quite a game with Bolton getting back to lead 2-1 at H-T only for City to come back and win 4-2. So at least the trading out straight away save me a few grey hairs. Fulham lose to a last minute penalty. Sanchez could be next Manager sacked.

Only had one bet on the GG's. Sublimity. I know the trainer said he needed a run, and the ground wasnt to his liking, but, at almost 5-1 I couldnt let that go. I didnt mind as he won me umpteen 00's at the Festival. I thought he'd gone wrong at the last after looking dangerous 2 out, as Paul Carberry took a look down at his legs but the trainer says he 'blew up' so obviously wasnt fit and did need that run. Sad to see Macs Joy break down.
The winner Osana got a flyer at the start and was getting up to 8lbs. But won like a vintage Pipe horse making all. Of course Tamarin Bleu won the big chase the same way so it looks like the Pipe runners are going to be worth following if the ground stays good this month.

Football looks tricky on the 'Super Sunday', will probably leave it alone and trade a few races but think the Mrs will drag me out shopping. I wont be laying any 1.1 on that happening!

The Grind

2007-12-14T10:29:00.000-08:00

No Doncaster today which was a shame as I fancied a couple there.
Still, busy day though. I ended up playing 15 races. Probably a couple more than I intended but the returns were a bit better in the later races. I made a loss on 3, not too much, drew a scratch on 3 more, well sort of, as one return was a profit of 2p!, and returned a respectable profit on the other 9.
I was able to get through all 7 from Southwell and Cheltenham and had made a traded no lose bet on Ninetieth Minute who won a Maiden hurdle at Gowran Park. It was flagged up Dave Duggan on ATR this morning so made sure I had a look.
Hacked up, won nicely, so I'll keep an eye on that one.

A couple impressed me at Cheltenham. Joe Lively was most impressive in the novice chase. He might have only beaten 3 rivals, but the way he pinged the fences and sprinted away up the hill had 'Festival' written all over it. Think he's about 20/1 for the Sun Alliance now. Clever at the big ditches and hardly touched a twig at the others. In the last, Calgary Bay seemed suited by the track and beat some useful novices with good form. Battled past the short priced fav Snap Tie and wasnt hard ridden. Over the Creek showed the Pipe family can still get one over on the handicapper by winning the big race, and the cross country race wasnt the same without Spot the Difference.

I was happy with the way I played most races. Got out 'green' before the off mostly, though it was busy I didnt get too mixed up or lose concentration too much. Glad when it was over though. 3 hours staring at numbers can make you dizzy.

The F.A. finally announced Capello as the next England manager so I got a few quid back from that market. Was still 2.5 on Monday when the whole world seemed to know!

Going out the town with a few mates tonight so I might just limit the races tomorrow to a few value trades. But I do have a fancy for the Football. I'll be laying the draw at 3.55 in the Man City/Bolton game and trading out above 4.5 if a goal is scored by Man City, scratching if Bolton score and bailing out at 2.4 or at 60 minutes. Thats how I like play the Footie. No big secret as its a fairly common system. I like home team to be odds on and the draw less than 3.75.
Theres usually about 2 or 3 a week in the Premiership.
Heres hoping I survive the night. Good Luck me.

Dull and Rude days

2007-12-13T08:04:00.000-08:00

Yesterday I didn't get too involved.
Had a look at a few but races but wasn't really in 'the right mood'.
What with the Football looking tricky I decided not to play.
Was hoping to be able to post something and tales of big profits, but I think walking away is an important lesson to learn.
How many times has the demon sat on our shoulders and whispered
'Go on, just one more bet' then laughs at our losing betting slip.
The football was a minefield. Who wanted to win? Who was playing?
Arsenal and Man U put out skeleton teams but still got results so I was glad I gave that the swerve. There's better stuff to come at the weekend.

Very Rude
Today will be remembered for the some farcical stewarding decisions.
The late cancelling of Huntingdon, when the track had never been softer than the M11, and then the Rude Health saga really do make racing look like a Pantomime.
Did he run?
'Oh no he didn't' shout the punters.
'Oh yes he did' reply the wicked stewards.

Luckily I managed to dodge all the carnage and had a 'nice' days trading. I didn't have any strong fancies for anything so blindly traded the favourite in 9 races showing a hedged profit in 5 races and a '0.00' in the other 4. Couldnt get an edge in 3 of them and I would have had a small loss if Acambo had won, but Mcoy asked for a 'biggun' and crumpled on landing at the last.
Wont even look at Wolves tonight as I go bowling on Thursdays.
My one weekly submission to exercise.
Donny and Cheltenham tomorrow so should be good sport.

Here we go then

2007-12-11T18:19:00.000-08:00

After a lifetime of reckless gambling and bad habits Ive knuckled down to studying the ways of the trader, not in a Jedi sort of way. More of a Kung Fu style, as there is always 'much to learn young Grasshopper' Ive had some mixed results so far but hope we get in the swing of things soon.
Ive been thinking about starting a blog two for some time now as I hope it will add more discipline to my trading.
Any comments most welcome.

So lets kick off with today Tuesday then.
Having spent most of Monday night playing a 600 runner Poker game where I made the final table after 4 hours but but got beat by some clown, I gave most of the racing a miss until the last at Fontwell where I thought Lodge Lane had a good chance and was surpised to see the price drift before the off. I was able to lay and then hedge off for a nice green and a back as the tapes went up.
Despite a mistake at the last he scraped home by a couple of lengths.

Most of the time Im looking to have an even green on every runner, but this race looked one of those where despite 16 runners, 14 would no chance in a walkover! So I had a 2/3rds bet of the hedged green at the off. Win some or win a bit!

If Im trading 6 or more races a day I just look to make a profit from each but the 'free' bets can be a good if you dont have the time.

Football

The game of the night was obviously Liverpools very good under pressure win at Marseille. Reading all the forums today it was noticable how opinion that 1.9 was too short was pushing out the price. But to lay Liverpool to lose you had to consider would Marseille, a French side about the equivalent of a Birmingham or Blackburn beat a full Champions League squad of Liverpools calibre.
About half an hour before k/o I was able to get lay of 1.96 matched with the intention of backing at anything over 2. Bang on k/o I got fully matched at a juicy 2.1 and didnt that look 'too big' as Stevie G ~~dived~~, I mean was brutally hacked down for a penalty.
I'll forgive him this once.
Of course he fluffed the pen, although the keeper had hands the size of dustbin lids, he got up quick enough to bang home the opener.
Pay now!

Before I even got to trade out Torres ran rings round the Froggie defence so 1.11 was all I needed to lay.
Turned over and watched Spooks at H/T. Job done.

Well I hope that made some sense, lets hope I can keep it up. Laters.